“超级厄尔尼诺”来了？未来几个月全球或有45万人死亡，去这10个国家要小心

一场异常强烈的厄尔尼诺正在影响全球。最新研究预测，未来几个月，随着全球多地出现异常高温，可能有约45.1万人因高温相关原因过早死亡。



据荷兰媒体报道，美国芝加哥大学和Climate Impact Lab最新发布的研究，从2026年9月至2027年2月，当前这轮强烈的厄尔尼诺可能导致全球出现约45.1万例额外高温死亡。

研究人员分析了全球超过2万个地区过去的高温死亡数据，并结合当前的气候变化情况，对此次厄尔尼诺可能造成的影响进行了估算。

需要注意的是，45.1万人是模型预测结果，而不是可能达到的死亡人数，实际情况还将取决于未来几个月的气温变化、极端天气持续时间，以及各国采取的应对措施。



此外，这项研究计算的主要是高温造成的额外死亡，并没有把厄尔尼诺可能引发的洪水、干旱和森林火灾造成的死亡计算在内。

非洲和亚洲部分地区可能受到最严重影响

从研究公布的预测来看，未来几个月，高温影响可能主要集中在非洲、亚洲以及南美洲部分地区。

预计受到影响最严重的国家包括：



其中，尼日利亚预计受到的影响最大，模型估算可能出现约3.14万例额外高温死亡；印度尼西亚预计约1.93万人，苏丹约1.75万人，印度约1.58万人，巴西则约1.33万人。

从这份名单也可以看出，预测受影响最严重的国家大多位于全球南方。部分国家本身就面临较高的极端高温风险，同时在医疗资源、降温设施以及极端天气应急能力方面也存在一定限制。

研究人员因此认为，提前知道哪些地区风险最高，可以为当地政府争取宝贵的准备时间。

例如，政府可以提前发布高温预警、开放公共降温中心，并加强对户外工作人员的保护，从而降低高温带来的健康风险。

“超级厄尔尼诺”到底是什么？

厄尔尼诺并不是一种新出现的气候灾害，而是一种周期性自然气候现象。

简单来说，当赤道附近太平洋海域的海水异常升温，就可能形成厄尔尼诺。由于海洋和大气之间存在密切联系，海水温度变化会进一步影响全球大气环流，从而改变不同地区的天气模式。

厄尔尼诺通常每隔2到7年左右出现一次。

而这一次受到特别关注，是因为研究人员认为，目前这轮厄尔尼诺的强度非常高，一些媒体甚至用“超级厄尔尼诺”或“Godzilla级厄尔尼诺”来形容其规模。

研究预测，未来几个月全球陆地平均气温可能比正常水平高出约1.2℃。

当然，这并不意味着全球每一个地方都会升高1.2℃，而是指全球平均水平，不同地区受到的影响会有很大差异。

厄尔尼诺带来的不只是高温

很多人听到厄尔尼诺，首先想到的是“天气变热”，但实际上，它对全球天气的影响要复杂得多。

由于大气环流发生变化，厄尔尼诺可能让不同地区出现完全不同的极端天气。

例如：
·南美洲部分地区可能出现强降雨和洪水；
·非洲部分地区可能面临更加严重的干旱；
·印度和东南亚部分地区可能遭遇极端高温；
·印度尼西亚等地的森林火灾风险可能增加；
·农业、供水和能源系统也可能受到影响。

因此，研究人员估算的45.1万人主要是高温相关死亡，并不是此次厄尔尼诺可能造成的全部人员伤亡。

极端天气造成的死亡，其实比过去少了很多

一个容易被忽视的事实是：虽然全球气候正在变暖，但人类应对极端天气的能力也比100多年前强了很多。研究人员表示，自1900年以来，全球因极端天气造成的死亡率已经下降了约95%。

原因包括天气预报技术进步、洪水防护设施改善、极端天气预警系统更加完善，以及医疗和国际救援能力不断提高。

这意味着，极端天气本身并不一定意味着大规模人员伤亡，提前准备能够显著降低风险。

科学家：这可能是未来高温的一次“提前预演”

Climate Impact Lab的研究人员认为，这次异常强烈的厄尔尼诺，可能让人们提前感受到未来全球变暖可能带来的高温天气。

换句话说，厄尔尼诺本身是一种暂时性的自然气候现象，但在全球变暖的背景下，强烈的厄尔尼诺可能进一步推高全球气温，让一些地区提前经历未来可能更加常见的极端高温。

这也是为什么研究人员呼吁，各国不要只关注这一次厄尔尼诺带来的影响，而应该利用这次机会提前做好准备，例如完善高温预警系统、增加公共降温设施，以及加强对老人、户外工作者等高风险人群的保护。

荷兰会受到多大影响？

与非洲、南亚和东南亚部分地区相比，荷兰预计不会成为此次厄尔尼诺影响最严重的地区。

目前的预测显示，荷兰受到的直接影响相对有限，未来天气可能出现一定变化，例如春季可能更加湿润。

不过，这并不意味着荷兰完全没有高温风险。

近年来，欧洲已经多次经历严重热浪。即使没有强烈厄尔尼诺，全球气候变暖本身也正在增加欧洲出现极端高温的风险。

因此，对荷兰以及欧洲其他国家来说，如何应对越来越频繁的高温天气，也正在成为一个越来越现实的问题。

厄尔尼诺会暂时过去，但全球变暖不变

目前这轮强烈厄尔尼诺预计将持续到2027年初，其影响可能在2027年2月之后逐渐减弱。

但对科学家来说，更值得关注的并不只是这一次厄尔尼诺。

厄尔尼诺会过去，但全球变暖仍在继续。

这意味着，即使这次极端高温随着厄尔尼诺结束而逐渐缓解，未来全球仍可能面临更加频繁和更加严重的高温天气。

从这个角度来看，这次厄尔尼诺更像是一次对未来气候的提前预演：当极端高温逐渐成为常态时，我们是否已经做好准备？

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